As the uncertain tariff environment drives talk of reshoring and onshoring, and AI continues to be the buzziest trend of the decade, one key attribute companies need to keep in mind is their labor pool, and the skills of their workforce. Across industries, leaders are working to ensure their talent pool has the necessary skills to continue to drive growth.

In the commercial baking industry, for example, leaders are working through how AI may affect their industry. Today, leaders think the impact of AI will be focused in scope. 51% of commercial leaders think that 10% or less of their workforce will need to upskill for AI in the next three years. 41% of leaders think that 11-30% of their workforce will need to upskill for AI in the next three years.¹

Reshoring, Automation, and Long-Term Workforce Needs

The time horizon for upskilling is different in more specialized and capital-intensive industries. For example, the process of reshoring a factory may take 3-10 years, especially as modern advanced facilities involve automated processes and intricate machinery.³

As of January 2024, 13 million people were employed in manufacturing, but industry growth is driving the need for more workers from entry-level, to skilled production to engineers.² The net need for new employees in manufacturing could be 3.8 million between 2024 and 2033. Half of these jobs (1.9 million) could remain unfilled if manufacturers are not able to upskill their workers.³ With the growth of onshoring and tech adoption, the size of the skills gap is likely to continue to grow.

Irrespective of onshoring and reshoring trends, 80% of manufacturing leaders said that labor turnover disrupted production in 2024.⁴ 94% of manufacturing leaders anticipate hiring a different skillset in the coming years than in years past,⁵ and in 2033, 50% of manufacturing jobs will remain unfilled unless the skills gap is addressed.³

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Caitlin Zager, VP of Research czager@shorecp.com

1. AI in the Commercial Baking Industry, an AA Pulse Survey 2025 (on file)
2. https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-manufacturing-onshoring-obstacles-a36686cb
3. https://action.deloitte.com/insight/3896/skills-applicant-gaps-threaten-us-manufacturing-growth
4. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufacturing/manufacturing-industry-outlook.html
5. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufacturing/supporting-us-manufacturing-growth-amid-workforce-challenges.html

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